2026-07-27 · ON-CHAIN AUDIT
Big Money Isn't a Signal: 109,000 Whale Prints on Polymarket, Audited
We found the copy-traders on-chain — 182,355 buys within 60 seconds of a whale print, median ticket $10 — and every cohort lost after fees. The cost isn't slippage (half a cent); it's delay. Plus: why leaderboard win rates are inflated by ~40 points, why only 2 of the 300 biggest wallets actually forecast, and the market's one price band that tests net-positive.
109,460 whale prints
$880.8M notional
1.94M-trade tape
300 wallets profiled
incl. our own −20.3%
Read the full audit →
IN THE PIPELINE
Being written up from the same engine
- Why your limit order never fills: queue position beats price distance on Polymarket
- The zombie-position effect: how open losers quietly inflate every public win rate
- Where prediction-market users actually live: timezone inference from 1.9M trades