Institutional event-risk documentation

Noara turns contract rules, settlement state, executable liquidity and portfolio exposure into versioned, explainable risk state. This documentation describes the public product contract—what enters a decision, what comes out, what remains unknown and what can be audited—without publishing internal thresholds, weights or strategy logic.

Availability boundary. Public Polymarket risk endpoints are live today. Organization/workspace access, authenticated institutional tools, Kalshi normalization, cross-venue equivalence, versioned policies and signed risk-event webhooks are implemented for design-partner deployment; they are not represented here as generally available production services. The institutional control layer provides decision support and never submits orders.

Overview#

Six questions define the operating surface. Each answer is tied to a contract version, observation time and evidence source; missing safety evidence remains unknown.

RulesDid the operative contract change? Inspect the current version, material field changes, evidence and review state.

SettlementDo the settlement paths agree? Compare sources, deadlines, outcome definitions, fallback clauses, exceptions, dispute paths and finality.

EquivalenceAre two venue contracts economically equivalent? Shared subject matter is not treated as proof of an equivalent hedge.

LiquidityCan the exposure exit against the current book? Evaluate requested size, executable size, average exit price, slippage and insufficient depth.

PolicyWhy was a request allowed, warned or blocked? Return the policy version, matched controls, evidence and before/after portfolio impact.

AuditCan the decision be reconstructed? Preserve ordered evidence, versions, reasons, decisions and risk events.

Contract rules#

Noara identifies a contract by venue identifiers and its operative rules—not by title similarity. The normalized contract preserves the rule version, source, cutoff and time zone, resolver or oracle, dispute path, fallback behavior, exception clauses, finality terms, observation time and explicit unknowns.

What the answer contains

Current version and evidence. A version identifier, source reference and observed-at time establish which rules were evaluated.
Material change state. Changed semantic dimensions are named; unsupported meaning stays unknown and can require review.
Downstream invalidation. A rule change makes affected equivalence relationships stale until the current version is reviewed.

Boundary: the documentation exposes the fields and state transition, not the extraction rules, parser implementation or internal confidence thresholds.

Settlement#

Event mapping and economic equivalence are separate answers. Two contracts may refer to the same real-world event while resolving against different sources, deadlines, outcome partitions, fallback rules, exceptional clauses or oracle processes.

Published relationship states

economic_equivalentAll material settlement dimensions are explicitly equal.

partial_hedgeSome exposure may offset, but material coverage is incomplete.

related_not_equivalentThe contracts are related but should not be treated as equivalent.

not_equivalent_due_to_rulesA material rule or settlement-path difference prevents equivalence.

unknownMaterial evidence is missing, stale or not safely interpretable.

The settlement-basis answer links each difference to evidence and reports qualitative coverage status. It does not invent probability estimates or hedge ratios.

Liquidity#

Displayed volume is not executable liquidity. Noara evaluates an exit against the observed bid book for the relevant outcome and carries the book timestamp into the answer.

Requested versus executable size shows whether the current book can absorb the scenario.
Estimated average exit price and proceeds are calculated from available bids at the observation time.
Estimated slippage compares the book-weighted exit price with the current mark.
Insufficient depth or stale evidence remains explicit; it is never converted into a low-risk result.

Snapshot, not guarantee. Books can change before an order arrives. The public Liquidity view uses standardized marked-notional scenarios; portfolio decisions use the actual requested exposure supplied by the customer.

Policy decisions#

A pre-trade check evaluates the requested exposure against a named, immutable policy version and returns decision support only. It never returns an execution receipt and never places an order.

ALLOWThe supplied request satisfies the active policy using the available evidence.

WARNThe request requires attention or escalation but is not blocked by the configured policy.

BLOCKA policy control is breached, required review is missing, or safety-critical evidence is unknown under fail-closed policy.

The explanation includes the policy version, matched controls, contract risk components, before/after portfolio impact, liquidity and settlement-basis evidence, freshness, machine-readable reasons and a recommended control action such as NONE, REDUCE, EXIT or ESCALATE. Exact customer thresholds and internal aggregation logic are not public.

Audit#

Every institutional answer is designed to be reconstructed from its tenant, workspace, contract and policy versions, observation time, evidence references, request identity and returned reasons.

Risk-event contract

Design-partner webhooks can subscribe to rule changes, resolution changes or disputes, risk-level changes, stale evidence, stale equivalence, blocked policy decisions and test events. Deliveries are signed, versioned and may be retried, so receivers deduplicate by event ID.

Current boundary. Append-only decision and audit behavior is implemented and internally qualified. Production database, immutable external audit export, monitoring, backup and recovery remain deployment requirements; the public docs do not claim those operational controls are generally live.

API and MCP#

The institutional interface is tenant-scoped and authenticated with a bearer API key carrying explicit scopes. Organization/workspace bootstrap, keys, policies, mappings, reviews and webhook administration are REST operations; institutional MCP tools are read-only.

Read-only institutional MCP tools

inspect_contract
compare_contracts
inspect_settlement_basis
inspect_portfolio_risk
explain_pretrade_decision
list_recent_risk_events

These tools cannot change policies, portfolios, mappings, equivalence reviews or execution state. Full request paths and schemas are part of the design-partner OpenAPI contract and are provided during onboarding.

Availability#

Live todayExisting public Polymarket REST/MCP risk surface and public resolution/risk data.

Design-partner deploymentOrganizations, workspaces, API keys and scopes; Kalshi normalization; event mapping and equivalence; policy decisions; institutional MCP; signed risk-event webhooks.

RoadmapReviewer UI, richer venue polling, historical rule-change datasets, calibrated scenario libraries, external immutable audit export and customer-specific reports.

Individual products#

The sections below document Noara's separate individual monitoring and Guardian products. They are not the institutional control plane described above.

Getting started#

The free tier runs on Telegram and needs one thing: the public wallet address you use on Polymarket. No account, no key, no signature.

Open @AskNoaraBot on Telegram and press Start.
Send it your public wallet address — the 0x… address your Polymarket positions sit on. On Polymarket: your profile → the address under your username.
That's it. Noara reads your open positions from public onchain data and starts watching. Alerts arrive in the same chat.

From then on, for every position you hold, you get:

Move alerts with the reason. What moved it, sourced and time-stamped.
Settlement warnings. Resolution dates, fine-print traps, and oracle proposals against your side — flagged while there's still time to act.
24/7 monitoring. Positions are checked around the clock; alerts fire when a threshold trips, at any hour.

You don't need an open position to use Noara:

Watch any market by link. Paste a polymarket.com market link in the chat and Noara watches it for you — price jumps, approaching resolution, oracle activity (up to 10 watched markets, on every tier).
Ask about any market. Send a link or a question and Noara replies with the structure of the market — implied probability, resolution rules, liquidity, time to settlement — so you can judge it yourself.

A public address is the only input Noara needs — the same information anyone can read off the blockchain. Noara never asks for a private key, seed phrase, or exchange login.

Guardian (live)

Guardian adds execution: exits, trims, and take-profits under your caps and a one-click stop. It runs in a dedicated Guardian wallet that holds only what you deposit; withdrawals are processed within 24 hours. Live now: set it up on the web at noara.io/account, or from the Telegram bot with /guardian on. Both control the same account.

Automation level and trading style#

Guardian has two independent settings, both changeable at any time from your account page or the bot. Neither is on by default.

Off. Noara watches and alerts. It never places an order.
Auto-exit only. It sells to take profit, stop losses and protect settlement — it never opens a position. This is where every account starts.
Auto-trade. It also opens positions on its own. Turning this on takes a separate confirmation from the one for auto-exit: agreeing that Noara may close a position is not the same as agreeing that it may open one.

Trading style decides how your limits get used — never how large they are. Your caps remain the ceiling in every style.

Conservative. Uses your caps gradually and limits how quickly new exposure can be added.
Balanced. The default profile, between conservative and aggressive use of your caps.
Aggressive. Uses more of your permitted capacity while remaining inside the same hard safety ceilings.

Every style remains bounded by server-side safety ceilings. Internal scoring, sizing and entry parameters are not published or delivered to browsers.

How it works#

Noara has two paths. Free watches markets and wallets. Guardian manages positions you already hold and, only in Auto-trade, may open positions under your rules and caps.

1 · Observe Every position gets a live intelligence feed: Polymarket prices and order books, Polygon onchain state (positions, settlements, oracle activity), news and official sources, live scores for sports markets — each item time-stamped and tied to the specific market it affects.

2 · Diagnose Deterministic detectors identify observable changes in repricing, aggregated large-print flow, settlement state and position risk. Noara explains what changed and what the data does not prove.

3 · Act On Free, "act" means alerting you. On Guardian, it means executing your rules: take profit, trim, or exit; Auto-trade can also open positions after a separate confirmation. Closing risk comes first. Every order remains capped and protected from firing twice.

The settlement guard#

Noara tracks resolution dates, rule fine print, and UMA oracle activity. If a proposed resolution goes against your position, it alerts during the dispute window.

The decision log#

Every decision — act, alert, or deliberately hold — is written to an append-only log with its reasons at the moment it was made. Nothing is edited after the fact. Executed trades are public Polygon transactions — verifiable onchain, losses included.

What Noara deliberately doesn't do

Free does not publish personalized picks or place orders. Guardian never opens a position unless you separately enable Auto-trade; when enabled, entries remain inside your rules, style, and hard caps.

Safety model#

Three layers: custody, authorization, execution discipline.

Custody#

Read-only permission is where every account starts: on Free, Noara only reads public data for the address you give it, and there is nothing to revoke because nothing was granted. Guardian is custodial. We create a dedicated wallet for you on our servers and hold its private key, encrypted at rest, so Noara can act on your rules without waking you for a signature. The funds you deposit into that wallet are in our custody until you withdraw them. You set the caps and automation level; the kill-switch halts activity immediately, and withdrawing removes the capital Noara can act on. Full detail in the Terms and Privacy policy.

The fuses#

Hard spend caps — total and per-trade limits Noara cannot raise or bypass.
One-click kill-switch — everything halts immediately; no queue, no grace period.
Dry-run by default — Noara decides but doesn't act until you explicitly arm it. Watch it for as long as you like.
Exit-first discipline — closing risk always outranks opening it; caps gate entries, never exits.
Fail-closed settlement checks — resolutions are verified against oracle data; anything unclear means no action.
Append-only decision log — every decision recorded with its reasons, nothing rewritten.

What the fuses don't do: abolish market risk. Alerts can arrive after a fast market has already moved; exits fill at the price the book offers, not the price you hoped for. Fuses bound the damage — they do not guarantee a profit, and nothing here is investment advice.

What Noara can never do

✕Send your money anywhere except back to you. Withdrawals from a Guardian wallet are released only to a withdrawal address on your own account, after review by a person.

✕See the private key of your own wallet. It never asks; there is nowhere in the product to enter one.

✕Exceed the caps you set, or keep trading after you hit the kill-switch.

✕Charge per trade or per action. The fee is a flat rate on guarded size.

Fees#

The alert layer is free. Guardian Pro charges a protection fee on the size it watches: 0.2% per month. $29/month minimum, $499/month cap, settled in USDC. Pricing changes are announced before they apply; founding-member locks are honored.

The fee base is your average daily guarded notional: the notional value of positions under protection, sampled through the month, weighted by duration. Consequences:

Close a position and its metering stops that day.
The fee is charged on size, not on profit or trade count.
Cash sitting in your wallet is not a fee base. Only what is actually under protection counts.

A $10k average guarded notional bills $29/month. $250k and above bills the $499 cap.

Free $0 The whole alert layer. 10 wallets, 10 watched markets, checked every 30 seconds. Read-only: a public address is all it needs.

Guardian Pro 0.2%/mo$29 min · $499 cap Everything in Free, plus the 60-second alert SLA and automatic exits inside a dedicated Guardian wallet — your caps, your one-click stop. Fee charged on average daily guarded notional, in USDC.

Fees are calculated monthly and invoiced separately — they are never deducted from your trading wallet. Pricing changes are published and announced before they apply to you.

Early-bird terms#

Conference-week free protection. The first 50 wallets get Guardian Pro free from 17–24 August 2026. No card, no commitment.
Founding members: 30% off for life. The first 50 paying members lock their rate permanently. Lock it in the bot — send /plans to @AskNoaraBot, pick your position band, and you see your real monthly figure before you lock anything. No card at this stage.
Annual: two months free. Pay a year up front and pay for ten.

The alert SLA#

Calibrating. The ledger behind these numbers is recording now; the figures below are measured against live data and take effect 17 August 2026. Until then they are our working target, not a commitment.

60 seconds, trigger to Telegram. From the moment a trigger condition is met — judged on the system data Noara acts on, which is what our ledger timestamps — to the alert landing in your chat: 60 seconds or less.

Miss it once and you get 10×. Any single breach in a calendar month pays back 10× that month's protection fee, issued as service credit. One payout per customer per calendar month.

There are four exclusions, and only four:

Upstream blackout. When our data sources are down as a whole, we cannot see the trigger, and a miss inside that window is not paid.
Telegram failures count as ours. If Telegram drops or delays the message, it is treated as our miss and paid.
Your side of the wire. A muted bot, notifications switched off, or a mis-set threshold — not paid. See the self-check below.
Force majeure. War, or internet outages at national scale.

Self-check:

The chat with @AskNoaraBot is not muted, and Telegram notifications are on for your device.
Send /status to the bot: your wallet shows as watched, and the account is not paused.
Send /rules: the thresholds read the way you meant them. A stop set at a price the market has already passed will never fire.
You have received at least one alert or daily digest. If nothing arrives within 48 hours, contact support.

Public data API and MCP#

This separate public interface exposes read-only Polymarket market and wallet risk data. It is free and does not require an institutional account or trading permission. It must not be confused with the authenticated design-partner interface documented above.

MCP endpoint

One line connects any MCP client. In Claude Code:

claude mcp add --transport http noara https://app.noara.io/mcp

Four tools are exposed: market search, a snapshot of any single market, settlement-risk detail, and Noara's own feed of large trades.

REST

GET https://app.noara.io/v1/search?query=fed
GET https://app.noara.io/v1/market?market=<slug>
GET https://app.noara.io/v1/resolution-risk?market=<slug>
GET https://app.noara.io/v1/whale-prints?limit=20
GET https://app.noara.io/v1/risk/market?market=<slug>
GET https://app.noara.io/v1/risk/portfolio?wallet=<0x-address>
GET https://app.noara.io/v1/risk/feed?since=<ISO-8601>

Rate limit is 60 requests per minute per IP. Responses are JSON.

Settlement risk

The resolution-risk endpoint reads what a market actually resolves against: its UMA phase (open, proposed, disputed, resolved), the resolver address, and the clauses in the resolution text that decide edge cases — the named data source, rounding rules, and what happens if that source does not publish.

It reads public metadata, which can lag the chain by minutes. Responses carry that caveat in the payload.

FAQ#

Do I need to give Noara my private key?

No — on any tier. Free needs only your public wallet address. Guardian trades in a separate wallet we create and operate; there is nowhere in the product to enter a private key.

Can Noara move or withdraw my funds?

On Free, no — it has no permissions at all and is read-only. On Guardian, be clear about what you are agreeing to: the money you deposit sits in a wallet we operate and hold the key to, and Noara moves it to open and close positions under your caps. What it cannot do is send it anywhere but back to you — withdrawals go only to a withdrawal address on your own account, after review by a person, normally within 24 hours. Deposits, actions and withdrawals are all written to an append-only log and the wallet's activity is public on Polygon, so you can audit us rather than take our word.

Does Noara give trading signals or picks?

Not through Free: it provides sourced market and position alerts, not personalized picks. Guardian can open positions only after you separately enable Auto-trade, and every entry remains inside your rules, style, and hard caps.

Is Noara free?

The alert layer is free, with no time limit — point it at a public wallet and it watches your positions day and night, no card required. Guardian Pro, which holds funds and trades for you, charges 0.2% per month of your average daily guarded notional: $29/month minimum, $499/month cap, in USDC. A $10k position costs $29 a month. Nothing else is charged — no management fee, no per-trade fee, no spread. Pricing changes are announced before they apply; founding-member locks are honored.

Where does the data come from?

Public, checkable sources: Polymarket's public APIs for prices and books; Polygon onchain for positions, settlements, and oracle activity; primary and official news sources; live scores for sports markets. Every alert cites its source and timestamp so you can check the evidence yourself.

How do I stop, pause, or leave?

Free tier: send /stop to the bot (or just block it) and monitoring ends there. Guardian: the kill-switch halts all activity instantly. Because Guardian is custodial, there is no allowance in your personal wallet to revoke; withdraw the funds to remove the capital Noara can act on. To have your data deleted, message the bot; see the privacy policy for what little there is to delete.

Which venues does it support?

Polymarket today, natively. Additional prediction-market venues are on the roadmap.

Support#

The fastest way to reach us is Telegram: @AskNoaraBot — the same chat your alerts arrive in.

For anything that needs a written record, write to us here — we reply by email.